Inevitable failure? Ten reasons for the failure of government investment in high technology

In the field of traditional technology, government support is effective. In other words, the government can provide support when technology development does not require original ideas and original research to achieve success or failure, but requires a large number of personnel and large-scale equipment, that is, huge funds. However, in the high-tech field, government support is not only ineffective but also harmful.

Through national power, seeking technological breakthroughs and world leadership in a certain field is a simple thing that any country’s governor wants to get, and has nothing to do with social systems. Among the countries that took action, two countries had a great success at one time, namely the Soviet Union and Japan. In a word, the Soviet model is called "concentrating funds to do big things." By the 1970s, this model was declared invalid, and no amount of money would be beneficial to the primary productive force of science and technology, and the Soviet economy therefore went into stagnation and lingering. The Japanese model is "government + enterprise", also known as the "government-led model." In the 1990s, the defeat was finally revealed, and the Japanese economy experienced a ten-year "lost period." The Soviet Union did not have time to reflect, or the Soviet model simply did not allow for reflection, so its major lessons were lost like waste water. Japan is not the same after all. The Japanese government and the opposition have conducted comprehensive, profound and long-term reflections.

Inevitable failure? Ten reasons for the failure of government investment in high technology

One of the most important conclusions of the Japanese reflection movement was: “In the field of traditional technology, government support is effective. In other words, when technology development does not require original ideas and original research to win or lose, it requires a large number of personnel and The government can provide support when large-scale equipment is a huge amount of funds. However, in the high-tech field, government support is not only ineffective but also harmful.” At that time, the world-famous Ministry of International Trade and Industry (equivalent to the China Development and Reform Commission, later collapsed and became the government’s tasteless part). ), it was here that Japan pitted Japan, and eventually smashed his own foot.

In the 1980s, Japan was called "the era when Japan and the United States compete side by side." The Ministry of International Trade and Industry formulated an ambitious ten-year plan to surpass the United States in an attempt to focus on new materials, biotechnology, and new functional components. Taking the lead, it was only discovered after ten years that things were counterproductive and even failed.

Nowadays, Sino-US conflicts continue, and China also recognizes the importance of core technology, wants to make a breakthrough in this area, and has begun to launch some support and encouragement programs. But on the road of development, we must learn more lessons from other countries so as not to go astray.

The reasons for the failure summarized by Japan are roughly as follows.

1. One of the characteristics of the high-tech field is that the product has high technical content and small output, such as precision instruments and meters. Government investment tends to be in products that can be produced in batches and in large quantities, which naturally runs counter to the market.

2. Another characteristic of the high-tech field is the diversity of products. For example, in the chemical industry, as many as 400 to 500 products are put on the market every year. Government-supported projects are often eliminated by the market while they are still being studied.

3. Another characteristic of the high-tech field is that development is mutational. Relying on government plans or investment will never be possible, or even unexpected. Such as the sudden emergence of the software industry and the sudden boom of "garage enterprises".

4. Some industries such as the chemical industry, from raw materials to products, can be realized by a "pipeline" in a nutshell. Complete sets of equipment can be introduced, but technical digestion, absorption, and improvement are not feasible, because they are driven by one engine. The whole body, there is no way to start or dare not to start, local improvement fails in the chemical industry. The Japanese once lamented: The chemical industry is an industry suitable for Europe.

5. An inevitable consequence of government support for industries is excessive competition or overcapacity in the industry. Because companies in the United States and Europe do not rely on government support, their efforts have always been towards the uniqueness or professionalism of their products, avoiding undesirable competition such as peers.

6. The more cutting-edge technology is more individualistic. In Japan, people engaged in research work are dubbed by the industry as "swingers who do not do their jobs." Such talents are destined to defeat the government. No matter how many people organized by the government, no matter how much money they put in, it will be useless.

7. The high-tech industry relies on the high mobility of talents, that is, the free flow of outstanding talents from the whole society to emerging industries or promising industries. The starting point for the government to consider the issue is "stability", and even repeatedly invests in stagnant industries in the name of revitalization, which affects the rational flow of talent.

8. The development of a new product or the cultivation of a new industry requires professional engineering management talents in addition to talents and funds. Such engineering management talents must have broad comprehensive knowledge and a high degree of sensitivity, and the government is obviously unable to assume such a role.

9. Innovative research relies on universities, and product development relies on enterprises. The gap between the two is also showing a growing trend. The government has no way to bridge it, nor can it exert its power. It is in a dilemma of "antinomy": money invested in universities does not produce economic benefits; money invested in enterprises does not produce technical benefits.

10. Frontier and emerging industries are inherently risky industries, while the government prefers to invest in existing and mature industries. The government often neither knows the direction of the wind nor catches the limelight. It stops when it shouldn’t. When it shouldn’t, it must smash a worthless bottomless pit. Quantum Communications).

Future Intelligence Lab is an interdisciplinary research institution of artificial intelligence, Internet and brain sciences jointly established by artificial intelligence scientists and related institutions of the Academy of Sciences.

The main tasks of the future intelligent laboratory include: establishing an AI intelligent system IQ evaluation system, carrying out world artificial intelligence IQ evaluation; carrying out the Internet (city) cloud brain research plan, building the Internet (city) cloud brain technology and corporate map, in order to improve the enterprise, Intelligent level services for industries and cities.

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