The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Consultation on Solicitation of Photovoltaic On-grid Electricity Prices" (hereinafter referred to as the "opinion"), which drastically reduced the subsidy price, and caused the large-scale start-up of the domestic market that the photovoltaic industry once placed high hopes on. This again casts a shadow on it. Photovoltaic industries falling into a trough have suffered another shock.

From the content of the opinion draft, it can be seen that the PV on-grid price will be changed from the past “one size fits all” from 1 yuan/kWh to four major resource areas, and the western region of Qinghai is 0.75 yuan/kWh and 0.85 yuan. / Kilowatt-hour, while Beijing, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 0.95 yuan / kWh, 1 yuan / kWh range, the highest drop of 25%. In addition, the "opinion" also stipulates that the partial subsidy price of distributed photovoltaic power generation for self-use is set at 0.35 yuan/kWh, which is far below the previously expected 0.4~0.6 yuan/kWh. This change has caused much controversy in the industry.

In an interview with reporters, most of the responsible companies of photovoltaic companies stated that the subsidy prices in this draft are much lower than previously expected, and may cause a large number of photovoltaic power plant operators to withdraw from the market, and at this time they will be on the verge of the upcoming EU anti-dumping. The overall recovery of the Chinese PV industry will be aggravated.

Expectations have become disappointing Before this, the industry had generally expected that the two conferences would introduce policies to stimulate and encourage the photovoltaic industry, but did not expect it to be a cold water. According to the latest subsidized prices, investment in photovoltaic power plant basic profit and loss edge.

"Disappointed," said an executive of a photovoltaic overseas listed company who commented on the "opinion" to reporters. In his opinion, the recent PV concept stocks have plummeted in overseas stock markets, which is the lowest point in history. The reason is as follows: debt-ridden Chinese PV enterprises Suntech deep bankruptcy rumors; second is the "draft" of the introduction.

The above executives told reporters that the industry had previously generally expected that the two conferences would introduce policies to stimulate and encourage the photovoltaic industry, but did not expect it to be a cold water. He believes that in accordance with the latest subsidy prices, investment in photovoltaic power plants is basically at the edge of profit and loss, coupled with factors such as land costs, cost of grid connection routes, electricity restriction risks, and delays in subsidy issuances. “It has no meaning to invest in photovoltaic power plants at this price. ".

“That’s not coming, the plan and detailed implementation plan for the VAT halving policy that we are looking forward to has not yet landed.” The above executives complained that at the end of December 2012, according to the “State Council’s executive meeting,” to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. According to the opinion, the photovoltaic power station project will implement the same value-added tax policy as wind power, with a clear 8.5% ratio on value-added tax, which is reduced by half from 17%, but the policy has not yet entered the specific implementation stage. According to the original 17% value-added tax plan, 17% of sales revenue should be used as taxes. The price of 1 yuan and 1 kWh is actually only 0.83 yuan; and after halving the value-added tax, it is 0.915 yuan, which is equivalent to the operators of power plants. As prices rose, the photovoltaic companies that once ignited the bottom of the industry were enthusiastic. “The current policy of halving value-added tax has not yet been implemented, and the subsidy price has already been brewed down. It is chilling.”

However, prior to this, Meng Xianwei, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, believed that the introduction of the "opinion" was a good thing for the photovoltaic industry as a whole. He believes that the introduction of the PV Internet price parity policy has promoted the improvement of the policy. With market-based classification and clear rules of the game, it has also guaranteed the expansion of the market. "As the price of photovoltaic modules decreases, the cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decline. This is a major trend in the downward adjustment of subsidies by the state. The subsidy intensity of European countries and the United States is also continuously decreasing. From a global perspective, around 2020, Photovoltaics will be able to access the Internet at a flat rate."

However, a photovoltaic industry association official told reporters that when the "opinion" was introduced, the market situation has changed, he disclosed that the "opinion" was started in December last year, when the price per unit component has dropped to 4 Below RMB, some photovoltaic power plant projects have a good profitability. The NDRC therefore tends to lower the subsidy price. However, since the price of components has started to rise this year, steel and cement prices have also risen. It is no longer appropriate to cut subsidies at this time.

The above-mentioned sources stated that in 2011, the price of components will be 10 to 12 yuan per watt. This year, the price has already fallen by more than half, and the NDRC may think that the time for price cuts is ripe. "But at the same time, the cost of land, marketing, labor, and management of the company is rising, and the overall cost has not fallen, so almost all PV companies are now in a loss."

On the one hand, the low-cost subsidies are difficult to make companies that invest in photovoltaic power plants profitable; on the other hand, investment in power plants also encountered a serious bottleneck in financing, which led to the gradual retreat of photovoltaic power plant investment boom. To make matters worse, the phenomenon of arrears of subsidies has also become more serious.

"I am looking for a new job." A Jiangsu PV company's power station business executives told reporters reluctantly that the industry's continued sluggish, so that the loss of talent in this industry is serious, he said: On the one hand low-cost subsidies difficult to make investment in photovoltaic The profitability of the power plant enterprises; on the other hand, investment in power plants also encountered a serious bottleneck in financing, which led to the gradual retreat of photovoltaic power plant investment boom.

He disclosed that the CDB made it clear last year that it will provide lending support to 12 companies in the “six major and six small” areas for photovoltaic power plant investment. In this list, "Six Large" includes LDK, Zhongneng, Suntech Power, Yingli, Trina Solar and Jingao. "Six small" includes Artes, Jinke, Sun Power, Zhongdian Photovoltaic, Yanhui Sunshine and Xinao.

"But this year, the CDB has gradually tightened its loans for companies investing in power stations." The above sources said he disclosed.

An investor in the photovoltaic power plant of the photovoltaic industrial park in Hami, Xinjiang, told reporters that the 100-megawatt photovoltaic power plant that has already been completed in the park has not been able to access the Internet so far. The main reason is that the local power grid company has not laid a transmission line. This park company has already paid for its own pockets. "More than 40 kilometers of transmission lines will cost more than 40 million yuan. Boost stations will also need tens of millions of yuan. The total investment will be nearly 100 million yuan, and the cost of each of these investors will need to be several million yuan. On the bank's 10% to 15% financing costs, these projects are difficult to profit."

To make matters worse, the phenomenon of arrears of subsidies has also become more serious.

Previously, Shi Yubo, vice chairman of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, disclosed in the “Proposal on Promoting Sustainable and Sound Development of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry” that, as of August 2012, photovoltaic power generation companies in Qinghai Province had accumulated 875 million kWh of electricity, but accounted for 71.8% of the on-grid price. The additional subsidy of nearly 700 million yuan has not been issued in a timely manner, causing greater difficulties for the company's operations. According to industry estimates, since April 2011, new PV power plant projects have not received subsidies, and at least subsidies worth 10 billion yuan have been owed.

The upcoming price adjustment storm, in addition to its impact on photovoltaic large-scale power plants, has also had an impact on the once-expected distributed photovoltaic power generation.

A person in charge of a large photovoltaic company in Shanghai told reporters that investing in a 3-kilowatt photovoltaic power generation system in Shanghai requires 2.5 million yuan in investment, 3,300 degrees in electricity generation, and only 1,155 yuan per year in subsidies calculated at 0.35 yuan. 21 years to recover costs. "So this basically doesn't have much investment value."

According to the above-mentioned sources, according to this subsidy price, private enterprises must lose money to lose money, and state-owned enterprises will gradually withdraw, and the rise of the domestic photovoltaic power generation market may become illusion. However, according to him, the five major power generation groups have been under pressure to find the Development and Reform Commission's Price Division to negotiate on this matter and hope to raise the subsidy price. "Therefore, there is a possibility that the "opinion" will be revised."