First, the status quo of the development of China's electrical complete sets of equipment Electrical complete sets of equipment is the basic equipment of the equipment manufacturing industry, has a wide range of applications in all walks of life of the national economy and people's livelihood. After 1980, China implemented a policy of reform and opening up, which enabled rapid development of the national economy and increased investment in economic construction. In particular, the increase in investment in infrastructure and electricity and energy has greatly stimulated the development of the industry. Our country has introduced On the basis of foreign products, they are digested and absorbed, and gradually have the ability to design and develop electrical complete sets of equipment. Since the 1990s, international famous electric brands have begun to invest in China to build factories and establish joint ventures, which has greatly promoted the development of new products and the improvement of manufacturing processes of domestic enterprises.

With the development of infrastructure construction and the input of electricity and energy, the demand for electrical equipment in China has increased year by year, the speed of upgrading and upgrading products has increased, the number of models has increased, the technical performance has been significantly improved, and production equipment and processing technology have improved significantly. With higher cost performance and service advantages than similar foreign products, domestic brands have already dominated the competition in the domestic market.

Second, the market demand for electrical complete sets of equipment is broad One of the main application of electrical complete sets of equipment is the control and protection of the power system, so the power industry is the direct consumption industry of electrical complete sets of equipment, the investment and development of the power industry directly affect the electrical equipment industry Market demand situation. In recent years, the Chinese government has increased the investment in technological transformation of the power grid, especially the smart grid, West-to-East power transmission, national networking, rural power grid transformation and urban network development involved in the transformation of the city network has played on the electrical equipment manufacturing industry. Positive promotion. In addition, with the acceleration of China's industrialization process, it will also promote the growth of demand for electrical complete sets of equipment, especially the pillar industries of the national economy such as petroleum and petrochemical, iron and steel metallurgy.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the investment in electricity increased substantially, and the demand for electrical complete sets of equipment was broad. With the continued advancement of industrialization and urbanization in China, the demand for the power industry will continue to grow. According to the data disclosed by the China Electricity Council in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" research report for the power industry, China's total electricity investment will reach 11.1 trillion yuan in the next 10 years, including the national electricity industry during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. Investment will reach 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 68% over the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period.

According to the statistics of the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation, China’s electric power continues to expand in 2010, with a total installed power generation capacity of 966 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%. At present, China's per capita installed capacity is only 0.6-0.7kW, which is still a certain distance from developed countries' average 1-3kW per capita. Our country plans to reach a total installed capacity of 1.878 billion or more in 2020, so China will also increase its installed capacity by more than 900 million kW.

The continuous rapid growth of industrial enterprises has greatly stimulated the demand for electrical complete equipment. China is still a developing country. Industrial development is still the main driving force for China's economic growth and a key area for its development. It is expected that it will continue to grow for quite a long time to come. This will undoubtedly provide protection for the continuous growth of electrical equipment.

The 12th Five-Year Development Guide for the Petroleum and Chemical Industry published on May 27, 2011 stated that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of the industry will remain above 10%. By 2015, the industry's total output value will reach 16 trillion yuan, will greatly stimulate the rapid growth of intelligent electrical equipment, mainly reflected as follows: First, the increase in demand for new capacity to provide space continues to increase; Second, due to the increase in total capacity, the space for the regular replacement of equipment continues to increase.

The rapid development of China's metallurgical industry, the rapid expansion of steel production capacity, production increased from 140 million tons in 2001 to 620 million tons in 2010, an average annual increase of about 50 million tons.

With the expansion of production capacity in China's metallurgical industry, it will inevitably lead to an increase in demand for electrical equipment, resulting in an increase in the output of electrical equipment.

III. Intelligent development trend of electrical complete sets of equipment During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, in line with the development of a strong smart grid, the construction of a strong smart grid requires equipment with digital, informatization and on-line detection functions, and the intelligent development of electrical complete sets of equipment will be Focus. In recent years, with the development of computer technology, data processing technology, information sensor technology, communication and data storage technology, power electronics technology, and the integration of various disciplines, the intelligentization of electrical complete sets of equipment has gradually become an important trend in the development of the industry. The intelligent complete sets of equipment bring together the protection, control, monitoring and measurement of the entire transmission and distribution system to realize the automation of the distribution network and lay the foundation for a wide-area monitoring and diagnostic system to ensure the safe, reliable and economical operation of the power system.

The intelligent updating and transformation of distribution networks has greatly increased the intelligent upgrading and transformation of electrical complete sets of equipment. Currently, in the domestic power grids at all levels, the infrastructure construction of distribution networks is the weakest. Due to insufficient investment in distribution network, aging equipment and poor technical performance, high energy-consuming equipment and high power consumption rate, the loss of the distribution network in the general region is between 15% and 20%, and 30% in individual regions, resulting in a large amount of wasted energy and the environment. Pollution, especially in the rural power grid, is even more pronounced.

In view of the above situation, the state has specifically introduced some policies to guide it. At present, the policy is mainly focused on the transformation of rural power grids. In 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Opinions on Implementing a New Round of Rural Power Grid Rebuilding and Upgrading Projects" and the National Energy Administration issued the "Technical Principles of Rural Power Grids Rebuilding and Upgrading Technology" and other policies that pointed out that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, a new round of agriculture The network transformation and upgrading project is an “intelligent upgrade”. The focus is on the pilot construction of new energy dispersal access, distribution automation, smart distribution stations, and rural agricultural electricity information collection.

The informatization construction of industrial enterprises has been carried out in an all-round way, and the intelligent upgrade of electrical equipment has been deepened. China's informatization construction is gradually maturing, and applications have evolved from the original high-end markets such as petroleum, petrochemical, and steel to diversification. Tobacco, pharmaceuticals, paper and food industries have a wide range of applications. The informatization construction will promote the intelligent upgrading of electrical complete equipment replacement needs.

Taking the metallurgical industry as an example, the “Guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Energy Saving and Emission Reduction of the Iron and Steel Industry” emphasizes: “Before the year 2011, steel enterprises with a capacity of more than 3 million tons will be supported to build or renovate energy management centers and support digital measurement instruments for steel companies. Promote the use of meters, actively apply electronic information technology, implement dynamic monitoring, control, and optimal management of energy transmission and consumption, and continuously strengthen energy balance, scheduling, analysis, and forecasting to achieve systematic energy conservation and consumption reduction. As the country gradually publishes equipment with poor quality and high energy consumption in the metallurgical industry, and vigorously promotes energy-saving, high-efficiency and digital equipment, metallurgical electrical equipment will develop in the direction of intelligence, automation, and energy conservation, and it will also promote electrical equipment. The upgrade.

IV. Market capacity of electrical complete sets of equipment and intelligent electrical complete sets of equipment 1. Market capacity of electrical complete sets of equipment Taking a look at the growth of the market of electrical equipment in China in recent years and the development trend of the demand space for future electrical complete sets of equipment, “Twelve Five During the period, China's electrical equipment will continue to grow rapidly. In this paper, the compound annual growth rate from 2001 to 2010 is used to predict the output of each voltage class of electrical equipment during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period.

(1) Market capacity of 40.5KV electrical complete equipment Through the statistical data of 40.5KV electrical complete sets of equipment from 2001 to 2010, the compound growth rate of 40.5KV electrical complete sets of equipment in China reached 22%, and the market demand in the future is estimated. Happening.

(2) The market capacity of 12KV electrical complete equipment Through the statistical data of 12KV electrical complete sets of equipment from 2001 to 2010, the compound annual growth rate of 12KV electrical complete sets of equipment in China in recent years is 15%.

(3) Market capacity of 0.4KV electrical complete equipment According to industry experience, the ratio of general low-voltage electrical equipment (0.4KV) to 12KV high-voltage electrical equipment is 6:1. Therefore, under the condition that the low-voltage electrical equipment cannot be counted, the output of the 12Kv high-voltage electrical equipment will be forecasted in this paper to predict the output of the low-voltage electrical equipment. The specific status is as follows:

2. Market capacity of intelligent electrical complete equipment In summary, the overall development of the smart grid, the intelligent transformation of the distribution network and the informatization construction of industrial enterprises will surely increase the intelligent replacement rate of China's electrical complete equipment. According to the smart grid pilot phase in 2009-2010, the intelligent replacement rate for newly added high-voltage electrical equipment is 3% to 5%. It is conservatively expected that the newly added intelligent replacement rate for China's electrical complete equipment will reach 9% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.