Recently, home appliance listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have disclosed quarterly reports in the third quarter of this year, the performance of listed companies has exceeded 60%, this is the fourth quarter of last year, the home appliance industry for the first time showed signs of demand to pick up. Analysis of the industry: narrow decline in real estate sales, delivery of affordable housing, raw materials are low, making the home appliance industry profitability in the third quarter has been enhanced.

Three quarterly report, over 60% increase

The recovery in the third quarter was first reflected in the "strong and substantial rebound" of those companies with poor long-term performance. At present, three-quarters of the quarterly report of home appliance stocks have been released. The performance growth of Huayi Compression, Tongzhou Electronics, Shenzhen Konka A and ST Kelon is expected to exceed double (see the above table).

The performance of the household appliance leading companies that have been performing strongly in the third quarter is even more "in the icing on the cake" - taking Gree Electric and Boss Electric as examples, it can still achieve more than 30% growth on the basis of good performance in the previous period. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the third quarter of 2012 is between 10% and 40% higher than the same period of last year, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is about 123 million yuan.

In contrast to the semi-annual report of the middle of the year, the household electrical appliance companies achieved a total operating revenue of 261.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.23%. Most companies increased or decreased slightly, and only 5 companies achieved a growth of more than 20%, accounting for less than 10%.

Although the two major home appliance chain giants Suning Appliance and Gome reported a pre-drop and a pre-loss in the third quarter of this year, the main reason was that they were dragged down by the intensifying "e-commerce wars" in recent years. It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, Gome posted a net loss. 501 million yuan, from July to September, the estimated loss amounted to 1 to 200 million yuan, compared with the profitability in the first half of the year has risen.

In this regard, Oriental Securities analyst Tang Siyu said in an interview with reporters that even though the growth rate of sales of various types of home appliances in the third quarter of 2012 did not significantly rebound, the income growth rate and profitability of home appliance companies were both increased year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter. Promote. Analyst Zhou Haichen of Shenyin Wanguo Securities said directly that “the overall demand situation of the household appliance industry in the third quarter has recovered from the previous period, and the industry's revenue growth is expected to increase from 5% in the second quarter to 3.9% year-on-year.”

Industry environment is good to promote warmer

CSI Securities analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upper reaches of home appliances has been hovering low this year, and the performance in the third quarter is even more pronounced – the cost downside will boost the overall profitability of the industry, thus maintaining a high gross profit margin.

According to the latest data, the prices of copper, aluminum, plastics and cold-rolled steel sheets fell by 24.51%, 17.99%, 15.30% and 12.83%, respectively, compared with the 2011 highs. The cost downside will boost the overall profitability of the industry and maintain a high gross profit margin. Taking air-conditioners as an example, the price of white raw materials fell by about 10% in the first half of the year, a year-on-year drop of 15% since July, while the price increase of air-conditioners in the new cold year continues to form a scissors cut, and the profitability of the industry is expected to continue to rise. Liu Buchen, an observing observer of the market, believes that e-commerce disrupts the competitive structure of channels and the bargaining power of channels declines. The downward trend in sales costs of home appliance companies also increases the profitability of enterprises.

Hong Shibin, another household appliance industry observer, believes that the narrowing decline in the real estate industry is also an important support point for Wangwang’s third-quarter performance. He said that in the past two years, China has imposed strict controls on the real estate market and the sales area of ​​commercial housing has continued to decline. This new demand has not completely disappeared. It is only temporarily curbed and will be released in the future. In May and June 2012, the sales growth rate of commercial housing was -9.25% and -3.27%, respectively, which narrowed significantly after the bottoming out. The 10 million sets of affordable housing that will be built by the end of 2011 will be gradually delivered around the end of this year, which will also compensate for the new demand for home appliances.

A person in charge of a white power company told the Times reporter that after anomalous inventory wars in the first half of the year, the home appliance industry could finally enter the third quarter relatively easily. He pointed out that as of the end of June statistics show that the air conditioning industry inventory control at 8 million units, down 18.74% year-on-year; refrigerators inventory of 3.1 million units, down 15.6% compared to the beginning of the year; washing machine inventory of 2.1 million units, down 24.9%.

A person in charge of a home appliance store also told reporters: “In the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day this year, the sales of the stores during the entire long vacation period increased by only 10% year-on-year, but it is undeniable that it is compared to the extremely poor demand in the first quarter of this year. With the price hike caused by the price war in the second quarter of this year, the slight recovery in sales volume in the third quarter still made people see hope. We are optimistic about the fourth quarter."

Related reports highlight the effect of energy-saving subsidies

The energy-saving subsidies for home appliances that have long been considered as “not of much use” also broke out in the third quarter of this year. CICC analysts even attributed the household appliance industry’s third-quarter performance better than the first-half year’s primary credit to the upgrade of home appliance consumption driven by the energy-saving subsidies policy.

According to the data of AVC monitoring market, from the perspective of TV sales before and after the implementation of the New Energy Efficient Economy, the sales in May was -19% in May. After the implementation of the subsidy policy in June, the decline started to narrow to -11%. 7 Monthly sales started to rebound to 12% from the previous month, and the momentum for continued recovery in August was 13%.

According to data from another National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the energy-saving subsidy policy drove the growth of the home appliance market, and the sales of home appliances of 3,000 key retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 8.1%, which was 7.3 percentage points higher than that in August and was the second consecutive year. The month is growing.

“The energy-saving subsidies began to show amazing power after they were implemented for several months. On the one hand, the “energy-saving subsidies” policy was formally implemented on June 1. However, the terminal channels did not formulate supporting measures until July; on the other hand, the enterprises controlled The rhythm of the goods, selective cleaning of non-energy-saving channels, there is a time difference, said home appliance industry observer Hong Shibin.

Ovid Consulting's data also shows that since the implementation of the policy for four months, the proportion of highly efficient energy-saving products has been significantly improved. Among them, the highest growth rate of air-conditioning, close to 120%; washing machine growth rate is also the lowest 30%.

Under the stimulation of favorable policies, Suning and Gome have significantly adjusted their purchase structure. Suning revealed that by adjusting the ratio of energy-saving subsidies to the procurement of products, the current level of black energy efficiency products including flat-panel TVs has exceeded 70%, and the proportion of air-conditioning energy-efficient subsidies has risen to around 35%. However, some brands of Gome TV achieved all the high energy efficiency of products sold. Suning officials said that the traditional home appliance policy three carriages "home appliances to the countryside", "trade-in" and "energy-saving benefits" are focused on sales growth. However, one of the more prominent advantages of the energy-saving subsidies policy is that it will further promote the transformation of the industry structure. The continuous introduction of new products and the increase in the proportion of high-value-added products will increase the profitability of the industry.

Gome expects net loss of 600 million yuan in the first three quarters. Gome recently announced the latest profit warning. It is estimated that the first three quarters (as of September 30) will have a net loss of 600 million to 700 million yuan, of which the third quarter is expected to have a net loss of 100 million yuan. ~2 billion yuan. Gome said that the loss of the e-commerce business has become a major cause of the Group's overall loss.

The Gome Announcement stated that the loss was mainly attributable to the decline in sales revenue of the Group, the increase in labor and rental expenses, and the loss in the e-commerce business. It is understood that in many factors, the loss of e-commerce business is the crux of the Gome repeatedly mentioned. Previously, GOME’s semi-annual report had a huge loss of 501 million yuan, which also mentioned the loss of e-commerce business. Its two Chinese home appliance makers lost 260 million to 2.7 billion yuan, accounting for about half of the country’s losses.

However, compared with the huge losses in the previous two quarters, Gome said that its sales situation has begun to improve in the third quarter. Although the company’s sales in the third quarter of this year declined compared to the same period of last year, it showed a trend of improvement over the first half of the year, and its profitability also rebounded from the second quarter of this year. Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gome, Zhang Dazhong, stated that “Gome will enhance its competitiveness by improving same-store growth, expanding secondary market stores, and accelerating e-commerce integration.”