The negative growth of domestic sales will cause heavy losses in air-conditioning inventory giants

While the industry is still fretting about the unprecedented industry inventory of the air-conditioning industry, the news of a negative growth in domestic sales has further aggravated people's concerns about the future development of the air-conditioning industry. Under the continuous influence of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the performance of China's air-conditioning industry can be described as tepid, and the scale of the industry continues to increase slightly. However, behind the growth of the market, one has to realize that the two major obstacles to development in China's air-conditioning industry are: erroneously entering into price wars and conceptual misunderstandings and continuing the backward mode of selling inventories. All indications indicate that China's air-conditioning industry has fallen into a situation of stagnating, and it has a huge industrial crisis.

Since 2011, the continuous spread of the global financial crisis and debt crisis in Europe and the United States have brought about tremendous changes in the global industrial development environment. On the one hand, the international raw material prices have become more uncertain, and the continuously fluctuating prices have completely disrupted the cost-maintenance system and operating costs of air-conditioning companies. On the other hand, the sluggish global economy has lowered the demand for the global air-conditioning market. Coupled with the stringent domestic real estate market regulation policies, the domestic air-conditioning manufacturing industry cannot find a huge capacity for release. Both of these constitute the current and future equivalents. The common challenges facing global air-conditioning companies over a period of time.

For a long time, most of China’s air-conditioning companies have been in a backward “factory operation” model, that is, “products are produced in off-season, and sales are in peak season”, so the air-conditioning industry has a huge inventory to be digested each year. This has led to the recent years China's air-conditioning industry has always been a high-risk operation. Along with the increase in market size, the risk coefficient of the entire industry has also been rising.

Under the circumstance of weak demand in the global air-conditioning market, China's air-conditioning industry with the world's largest manufacturing capacity has fallen into a huge development dilemma. Although the current domestic market maintains a steady development momentum driven by the government's domestic stimulus policies, it is still difficult. Overshadowed the overall low demand in the global market. The data shows that at present, China's home air-conditioning plant and commercial channel inventory is expected to reach 20 million units, this data is more than any previous year.

High inventory is the biggest risk for companies, and there are three main risks to the air-conditioning industry. One is the devaluation of technology. Once a new technology emerges, the depreciation of the technology in inventory products will occur because the technology update rate of air-conditioning products is too fast. Second, the price fluctuation of raw materials will directly cause the cost of inventory and new products to be misaligned, especially at present. The price of raw materials determines the price of money is extremely unstable; Third, the increase in the cost of holdings, monetary tightening caused a substantial increase in the cost of capital, the increase in the use of some local funds costs more than the increase in raw material prices. Any of these three factors will bring direct losses to inventory holders.

It is worth noting that the current air-conditioning industry is immersed in the misconceptions of concept warfare and price war. Multiple concept products continue to appear in the market, and some companies are also keen to stimulate the market through conceptual hype. However, in reality, there has never been a competition between products in the market. Only the competition between the ability to meet consumer demand, who can provide consumers with the largest package of consumer welfare, will get the market competition. For China's air-conditioning companies, only the concept of products is difficult to continue to win market competition, because consumers want to really meet the needs of the product, rather than put on the concept of clothes launched by the fight box embroidered legs empty shelf products.

With the global industry entering an era of surplus, the era of simply unilaterally researching and developing products in the laboratory is gone forever. Any product that deviates from users' needs is a wasteful use of industrial resources. What is certain is that the products that truly meet the needs of users must not be concept products of all kinds on the market, but products that can meet the basic cooling and heating needs of consumers at a relatively rapid and low cost. In this sense, the current domestic air-conditioning market needs to return to rational development and abandon the simple conceptual development logic.

The huge stocks that have appeared year after year have highlighted the intrinsic mode defects in the development of China's air-conditioning industry. The Chinese air-conditioning industry must overcome this shortcoming in order to realize sustained and healthy development in the future and build a new development logic: stepping out of the current "off-season manufacturing products and sales during the peak season. The "simple development logic of products" guides the development of enterprises with the "demand-for-demand" model, and truly forms a rapid response to R & D and manufacturing demand for the market, realizing immediate connection between product supply and consumption. Only in this way can the domestic air-conditioning industry achieve stable and healthy development, otherwise it will be held by the market.

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