The total number of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles will be approximately flat in 2040

On April 11, the Chinese version of "BP World Energy Outlook (2018 Edition)" was released in Beijing. It is estimated that by 2040. It is estimated that by 2040, the total number of passenger vehicles will nearly double to 2 billion vehicles, of which more than 300 million will be electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles. By 2040, the total amount will be roughly flat.

Increase in the number of electric vehicles, significant increase in efficiency

By 2040, the number of passenger vehicles in the world will increase substantially. At the same time, the number of electric vehicles will increase, and vehicle efficiency will increase significantly.

Under the gradual transition scenario, the total number of passenger vehicles will nearly double to 20 billion by 2040, of which more than 300 million will be electric vehicles. Under the gradual transition scenario, the growth of electric vehicles will be faster than the growth under the basic scenario in the outlook of last year.

In addition, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, the total amount of the two will be roughly flat by 2040.

During the forecast period, the overall global automobile efficiency will increase by 2-3% annually, which is a significant improvement over the past 15 years. It is mainly driven by strict supervision and government goals.

30% of passenger car kilometers will use electricity

In addition, the energy demand for road transport is increasingly being affected by the combined effect of electric car sharing trips and autonomous driving.

Under the gradual transition scenario, by 2040, 30% of passenger cars will use electricity, which is significantly higher than that of electric vehicles (pure electricity and mixed electricity) accounted for 15% of the global total. This higher proportion means that electric cars will occupy an important position in sharing trips.

In the area of ​​shared travel, the use of cars is more intense, while the cost of electric cars is lower per kilometer and is therefore more competitive than that of internal combustion engine cars. In particular, fully-autonomous driving, which will be implemented around 2020, will result in a rapid decline in the cost of driving a vehicle, leading to a significant increase in shared travel (and the use of electric vehicles) in 2030.

Under the gradual transition scenario, the penetration of electrification into the automotive market depends on the increase in the number of electric vehicles and the interaction between autonomous driving and shared travel.

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