On Tuesday, the rebar futures contract 1201 was opened to 4622 (RMB, the same below), with the highest test at 4,624, the lowest test at 4585, closing at 4611, down 40 or 0.86%, with 458,478 lots, 587,802 lots. The holding positions increased by 11,110 lots. The Japanese K line presents a small Yin line with a longer shadow. The trading volume on Tuesday trading day decreased, the main reason for the narrow range of the market did not extend the recent accelerated decline, the intraday steel price fell below the 4600 integer mark and carried out a weak consolidation around this price, and the steel price stabilized after 4600 pulled up. The 4611 price is higher today, but the author insists that the steel price is still in the falling cycle, and the weak rebound does not change the downward trend of steel prices.

On Tuesday, the domestic capital market remained weak, and the A-shares rose by mid-day to close. However, under the weak market trend, the new low window torn open will be the channel for the index to continue to decline. Commodity futures market continued to fall on Monday, in which rubber once approached the previous lows and fell sharply by more than 2%; Shanghai copper and Shanghai lead also fell by nearly 2%; the outshining Shanghai aluminum turned stronger during the afternoon and pulled up in the afternoon. Turn red highs to close.

According to data from China Steel Spot Net, prices of the domestic building materials spot market continued to fall on the 20th, with the decline mostly at 10-30 yuan/ton, and prices in some regions showed large declines. The three-tier large snails in the Shanghai market fell by RMB 30/t, while those in Beijing and Guangzhou dropped by RMB 20/t. At present, the downstream market demand for steel can not be effectively released, and the downstream barrier to procurement is the shortage of funds, short-term steel futures prices will continue to fall.

In respect of raw materials, Mysteel's import ore price index was flat, and the current 63.5/63% print index remained at 187; the spot price of imported ore dropped by 10; the Baltic Index (BDI) continued to fall; Tangshan billet decreased by another RMB 80/t yesterday; iron powder The price of the mainstream maintains stability, and prices in individual regions have fallen.

The China Iron and Steel Association released a monthly market analysis report on September 20. It is pointed out that the country will continue to implement active demand and it is expected to continue to grow. However, due to the relatively high level of iron and steel production, the slowdown in the growth of the steel industry, weak international market demand, difficulty in export fiscal policy and sound monetary policy, and the situation in which the oversupply of the steel market is still difficult to reverse, steel prices will remain unchanged. Volatility is running.

The debt crisis in Europe has intensified. China’s large purchase of European debt with US$3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves seems to be considered “a lifesaver” by the industry and the media. However, the experts and officials attending Davos share the same attitude: Liquidity is not Europe and America. The fundamental problem faced by the economy is that the reform can resolve the current crisis, and the key to sustaining the continued growth of the global economy in the future is to rely more on scientific and technological progress. During the meeting, Li Daokui, member of the People’s Bank of China’s Monetary Policy Committee, also stated that the problems in Europe are mainly the problems of reforms. The countries in the European debt crisis did not have the will to reform and the reform plan. This is the problem. substance. By the end of 2011, the Davos in the summer were scattered and the global economy was showing its resilience in precarious conditions.

When rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy's rating to A/A-1 by one degree, and the outlook for maintenance was negative, it is bound to aggravate the worries about the spread of the debt crisis in the euro zone. Lin Yifu said that "the global economy is entering the second bottom," and the market is making more and more voices. Investors will continue to seek safe-haven assets. When the high level of gold fluctuates, the market will continue to chase after the lack of confidence. Capital began to flow into the US dollar market to push up the US dollar index, thereby suppressing the dollar-denominated asset prices. The market will continue to pay attention to the corresponding statement of the Fed’s interest rate meeting today, whether it can give the market a boost.

Today's steel prices broke through the 4600 integer mark and oscillated around this price range in a narrow range, accelerating the declining market. The author believes that the unilateral decline triggered by the 4660 steel price is not enough. At present, we can see that it started from point A, which is 4970, and left 4558 points at point B. After rebounding to 4875, it continues to oscillate downwards. The calculation of the Chinese steelsplit's steel capital management agency's use of the golden section to reverse the target position is as follows: :

1st=C-0.618*(AB)=4875-0.618*(4970-4558)=4620;

2nd=C-1.0*(AB)=4875-1.0*(4970-4558)=4463;

3rd=C-1.618*(AB)=4875-1.618*(4970-4558)=4208;

Another: The starting point of this round of decline is C, that is 4875, and the neckline is 4680. The following goals are calculated:

1st=C-(C-neckline)/0.382=4875-(4875-4680)/0.382=4364;

2nd=C-(C-neckline)/0.5=4875-(4875-46180)/0.5=4485;

3rd=C-(C-neckline)/0.618=4875-(4875-4680)/0.618=4560;

Basically, we can deduce that the support level for the continued decline in steel prices is: 4558/4520/4463/4208. Today's steel prices should continue to rebound weakly under the support of yesterday's small bottom, but the rebound momentum should keep 4680 intact, and intraday 4640 has constituted a rebound resistance. Unless it breaks above 4680 and stands firm, steel prices will continue to decline. New low. The 4558 and 4520 positions are enough to give short-term weak shock support.