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The scale of a single project is about 100MW, and the overall market capacity of distributed photovoltaics is huge.
Judging from the scale of the demonstration area announced, the project's capacity is between 60MW and 280MW, with an average of about 100MW. The State Council’s “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†issued by the State Council in July called for the construction of 100 distributed photovoltaic power generation scale application demonstration areas, 1,000 photovoltaic power generation application demonstration towns, and demonstration villages. It is estimated that before 2015, The scale of the distributed photovoltaic demonstration zone project should be around 10 GW. We expect that the subsidy rules for distributed photovoltaics will be introduced within the year, and the autonomous construction of large-scale enterprises will also start. China currently has 192 state-level economic development zones. According to a rough estimation of the average installed capacity of 100 MW in each development zone, the distributed photovoltaic market in the national economic development zone alone has a capacity of 19 GW. In addition, the construction of industrial zones and economic development zones in various cities will also be successively carried out. Considering comprehensively, we expect that the annual distributed photovoltaic installed capacity in the initial period of promotion can reach nearly 10 GW. If the pre-project is operating well, the completed project will also have the need for expansion and expansion, providing continuous power for the growth of the distributed photovoltaic market.
Local companies in photovoltaic provinces benefited the most. Four A-share companies took advantage of the regional distribution. One of the first batch of demonstration zones was located in the first-tier cities such as Beishang Guangshen; the other was located in Hebei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Photovoltaic provinces such as Anhui and Anhui; projects in these provinces are mostly run by local private companies, including A-share listed Sun Power, Sunflower, Oriental Sunrise, and Zhongtian Technology. The four A-share listed companies can take the initiative and demonstrate that they are well-prepared and have smooth channels. They will continue to occupy the upper hand in the future development of distributed photovoltaics.
Among them, Sunflower and Oriental Sunrise have a small base of income and profit, and have the greatest performance flexibility.
The governments of photovoltaic provinces such as Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Jiangsu and Anhui have the most positive attitudes towards distributed photovoltaics. In addition to government subsidies, the governments in the province also provide extremely substantial local subsidies. We expect that large-scale distributed photovoltaic construction will also take the lead. Out of these provinces, large photovoltaic companies located in these provinces and cities have the opportunity to obtain a cup. In addition to the first batch of four companies, A-share listed photovoltaic companies in these provinces include Hairun Solar and Yijing Optoelectronics.
Large space for distributed photovoltaic market
From the capacity data of these batches of projects, it can be calculated that there will be a huge space for the distributed photovoltaic market in the future, and the installed capacity will be close to 10 GW each year after the market starts. The first batch of four short-listed A-share listed companies will take the initiative and focus on the higher-performing Sunflower and Oriental Sunrise.