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Topo analysis shows that consumer electronics products have been hit by adverse economic conditions, and the substitution effect of new display technologies such as AMOLED is gradually expanding, making the LED backlight market relying on consumer electronics products face bottlenecks. On the other hand, even if the LED lighting is growing slowly, the market prospects are established. Within five years, it is hoped that the LED industry struggling will ignite a new light.
Into the home market, such as the pace of cattle 2011 Although the LED is dubbed the "four major tragic events," but the government's policy to disable incandescent lamps will begin fermentation in 2012, more than two-thirds of the world began to disable incandescent or high-wattage Several incandescent lighting. Takuya believes that the post-incandescence period has come, the importance of LED in lighting applications has been highlighted, the next four years for the LED lighting market, the final critical period. In the application market, priority will be given to outdoor lighting, commercial lighting, industrial lighting, and automotive lighting. Finally, it will infiltrate into the home market.
From June 2011, Taiwanese LED lighting manufacturers have invested heavily in advertising marketing budgets, directly educating consumers, raising product awareness, and indirectly increasing the amount of market sales, growing by 35% to 50% per month. Lighting output value accounted for the proportion of product portfolio of Taiwan factory epitaxy and packaging plants, and also grew from less than 10% at the beginning of 2011 to an average of 25% in 2012 Q1. Due to the high color rendering and high plasticity of LED light sources, the penetration rate of outdoor architectural lighting and outdoor display screens has reached 90%. Benefit from the subsidy of streetlights, LED outdoor lighting will also grow faster than other types. illumination. On the other hand, high prices, insufficient brightness and other factors are the biggest obstacles to the LED home lighting market. It takes about 8-10 years to reach 50% market penetration. It is estimated that LED home lighting will not enter the market maturity until 2016.
If the replacement cycle is too long and the growth bottleneck meets the bottleneck from the global population growth, power supply demand, and energy saving trends, and analyze the growth trend of the global LED lighting market in the next decade, Tuo pointed out that Asia will become the region with the largest growth in LED lighting demand. Taking the Japanese market as an example, the 311 earthquake caused a power shortage crisis, which made the Japanese LED lighting market mature before 2014. In addition, countries in Central and South America including Mexico, Cuba, Brazil and Venezuela have banned incandescent lamps. The lack of power supply also raises the demand for energy-saving lighting products. In addition, LED lighting products are expected to be the future layout of LED lighting manufacturers due to their lower specification requirements. One of the main areas.
However, the global LED lighting market will face a two-stage development bottleneck before it reaches the mature stage in 2016. First of all, due to factors such as high prices and insufficient awareness of the market, it is difficult for the market penetration rate to break through the 20% bottleneck. Once it crosses the threshold, it will enter a period of rapid growth. Secondly, under the influence of LED products with a service life of up to 20,000 hours, and only about eight to ten years before they need to be replaced, when the market penetration rate grows to 40%, it may again face a long replacement cycle, making demand weak. Stalled into a stagnant state of growth.
In the long term, LED lighting products in the global government have gradually activated incandescent incandescent light policy, coupled with the future of new residential built-in LED lighting, emerging markets such as mainland China and other rural reconstruction lighting needs, and urbanization to accelerate the pace of LED advertising light box construction Driven by many factors, the advent of LED lighting era is just around the corner!
LED lighting will enter the market mature period after 2016
The LED lighting product market is limited by the inability of general-purpose lamps, insufficient bulb brightness, different LED lighting shapes from traditional lighting products, and excessively high unit price of LED lighting products. As a result, the global output value grew slowly before 2011, only about 8.7 billion yuan. USD (includes LED light sources, LED lamps, and related components). Chen Kehua, a researcher at Tuoba Industry Research Institute, predicts that the global LED manufacturers will actively develop new light source lamps in 2011 and strive to establish new light source standards. In 2012, global LED lighting output value is expected to grow to 11 billion US dollars, and in 2015 it will increase to 19.2 billion. In the US dollar, the compound growth rate in the middle of the year was nearly 20%.